Highlights

• • Maelle: extensive career (1066 matches) and higher career win rate
• • Pohle: small sample (32 matches) and lower historical win percentage, market may be overstating her chance

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (EV ≈ +0.155)
• + Experience and surface versatility favor Maelle in ITF setting

Cons

• - Both players show recent challenger-level losses, indicating uncertain current form
• - Pohle's recent results or other contextual factors unknown and could explain market favoritism

Details

We find value on Maelle Leclercq at 2.75. The market heavily favors Victoria Pohle (implied ~71%) despite Maelle's much larger career sample (1066 matches) and higher career win rate (559-507, ~52.4%) versus Pohle's 10-22 (~31.3%) across 32 matches. Both players show recent losses at challenger-level events, but the experience, volume of matches, and demonstrated versatility across surfaces favor Maelle in an ITF-level match. Given Pohle's very small sample size and lower career win percentage, the market appears to overprice her chance here; we estimate Maelle's chance materially above the break-even threshold (36.36%) required to make 2.75 +EV.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Maelle (1066 career matches vs 32)
• • Career win-rate gap (Maelle ~52% vs Pohle ~31%) suggests Maelle is intrinsically stronger
• • Market heavily favors Pohle despite small sample size and both showing recent losses