Magali Kempen / Katarzyna Piter vs Elsa Jacquemot / Polina Kudermetova

Highlights

• • Home implied chance 56.1% (1.781) vs our 53.0% estimate.
• • Required fair price for home is ≥ 1.887; current price is shorter and gives negative EV.

Pros

• + Market already favors the home team, which can be correct if undisclosed factors exist (reduces upside of being on the wrong side).
• + If odds lengthen to ≥1.887, the home side becomes a +EV opportunity by our estimate.

Cons

• - Research shows similar underwhelming recent results for all four players; no clear edge.
• - Negative expected value at available prices (EV ≈ -5.6% per unit) means bankroll disadvantage.

Details

We evaluated the market-implied probabilities versus our estimate of the true win chance. The current market prices (Home 1.781 => implied 56.1%) slightly favor Kempen/Piter, but the research shows very similar recent form and records across all four players (each listed with roughly 10-21 singles records and multiple recent losses). There is no doubles-specific data or clear advantage in surface or head-to-head to justify a gap larger than a few percentage points. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 53.0%, which requires decimal odds ≥ 1.887 to be +EV. At the available home price of 1.781 the expected value is negative (EV ≈ -0.056), so we do not recommend a wager. If odds drift to 1.887 or longer on the home side, that would represent value by our model.

Key factors

• • Both pairs show similar recent form and career records in the provided profiles (no clear superiority).
• • Market-implied probability (56.1% for home) is above our estimated true probability (53%), producing negative EV at current prices.
• • No doubles-specific stats, H2H, injury or surface edge in the provided research to justify betting against the market margin.