Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1/1.524 ≈ 65.6%) lower than our 67% estimate
• • Edge mainly from Kempen’s greater experience and higher career success

Pros

• + Home team includes a significantly more experienced player (Kempen)
• + Opponents show similar, modest career records that do not suggest a durable advantage

Cons

• - Edge is small — expected value is modest (≈2.1% ROI)
• - Doubles-specific chemistry and recent form data are limited, increasing uncertainty

Details

We believe the Magali Kempen / Katarzyna Piter pair is slightly undervalued at the current price. Kempen brings a large body of match experience and a stronger long-term winrate versus each individual opponent’s limited records; both opposing players have modest 10-21 records which suggests the away pair lacks an experience edge. All four players have documented hard-court experience so surface does not flip the matchup; recent mini-sample results listed are roughly similar across the players and show no clear injury flags. The market decimal price of 1.524 implies ~65.6% win chance — we estimate the true win probability closer to 67%, producing a small positive expected value at the posted odds.

Key factors

• • Magali Kempen’s extensive career experience and higher long-term win rate
• • Opponents (Nicole Fossa Huergo / Martyna Kubka) have modest 10-21 records and limited edge
• • All players have hard-court experience and no clear injury or surface disadvantage for the home pair