Magali Kempen / Katarzyna Piter vs Elsa Jacquemot / Polina Kudermetova

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home = ~54.6%; our estimate = 58.5%
• • Positive EV at current odds (EV ≈ 0.072 per unit staked)

Pros

• + Experience edge from Kempen likely translates to doubles composure
• + Current price (1.833) offers a clear cushion versus our assessed probability

Cons

• - Limited specific doubles-form data for partners Piter and Kudermetova increases variance
• - Recent match lists show several losses across players, so form is not dominant

Details

We believe the Kempen/Piter pairing is slightly undervalued at the current price. The market-implied probability for the home side at 1.833 is ~54.6%, but factoring in Magali Kempen's extensive experience and the relative inexperience and inconsistent recent results of the opposing duo (both Jacquemot and Kudermetova show limited match depth similar to Piter), we estimate a higher true win probability. There are no reported injuries and the match is on a surface both teams commonly play (hard), which reduces unknowns. Using a conservative true probability of 58.5% vs the implied 54.6% produces positive expected value at the current decimal odds.

Key factors

• • Magali Kempen's substantially larger career experience and match volume
• • Opponents (Jacquemot/Kudermetova) show limited match records and recent inconsistent results
• • Market-implied probability (54.6%) is below our conservative true probability (58.5%) implying value