Magdalena Hedrzak vs Maayan Laron

Highlights

• • Laron's supplied career win-rate ≈32%, far below the market-implied probability for 1.24
• • Current odds do not offer value based on available evidence; minimum fair price for our estimate would be ~3.03

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite (Laron) which simplifies value comparison
• + We have concrete career/performance numbers for Laron to base a conservative estimate on

Cons

• - No information provided on Magdalena Hedrzak, increasing uncertainty
• - Market-implied probability (80.6% for Laron) is far out of line with the documented form in research

Details

We compare the market prices (Magdalena Hedrzak 3.75 / Maayan Laron 1.24) with a probability estimate based on available player data. Maayan Laron's career record in the provided profile is 10-21 (≈32% win rate) with recent results showing predominantly losses at Challenger/ITF level, which does not support an >80% win probability implied by 1.24 (implied 80.6%). Using a conservative true-win estimate of 33% for Laron (aligned with her career win rate and recent form) produces a negative expected value at the current 1.24 price (EV = 0.33*1.24 - 1 = -0.591). To justify backing Laron at 1.24 we would need to believe her win probability is ≳80.6%, which the supplied data does not support. Given the lack of information on Magdalena Hedrzak in the provided research and the clear mismatch between market pricing and the player's documented form, we do not find value on either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Maayan Laron career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) in supplied data
• • Recent documented results show predominantly losses at Challenger/ITF level
• • Market heavily favors Laron (1.24 => 80.6% implied) which is not supported by the available form data
• • No data provided on Magdalena Hedrzak creates additional uncertainty