Magdalena Hedrzak vs Federica Sacco

Highlights

• • Sacco is a heavy market favorite at 1.07 (implied ~93.5%)
• • We estimate Sacco's true win probability around 82%, yielding negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Available player data on Sacco flags vulnerability and supports discounting the market-implied certainty
• + Clear EV calculation shows the favorite is overvalued at current prices

Cons

• - No information provided on the home player (Magdalena Hedrzak) to justify backing the long price
• - Estimate relies on limited data and carries uncertainty; market may be pricing contextual factors not in the research

Details

We find the market price (Federica Sacco at 1.07, implied ~93.5%) to be excessively tight given the published information. The only detailed research available is Sacco's career/profile showing a 10-21 record and recent losses in early September 2025, which suggests sub-elite form rather than near-certain victory. Using a conservative estimated true win probability for Sacco of 82% (0.82) — reflecting a clear edge over an unknown opponent but accounting for her losing record and recent defeats — the fair decimal price would be ~1.22. At the quoted 1.07 there is negative value: EV = 0.82 * 1.07 - 1 = -0.123 (approx -12.3% ROI). We also lack any objective data on Magdalena Hedrzak to justify backing the long price of 7.0; while a lay calculation would show value on Hedrzak if her true win chance were ≥14.3%, we have no evidence to support a materially higher probability than Sacco's implied counter. Given the asymmetric market (near-certain favorite) but limited opponent data and Sacco's unimpressive record, we do not find a reliable positive expected value at current prices and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Federica Sacco's record is 10-21 (career span 2024-09-30 to 2025-09-08) indicating weak overall form
• • Recent match results in early Sept 2025 show consecutive losses, lowering confidence in a near-certain win
• • Market implies ~93.5% for Sacco at 1.07, which is materially higher than our conservative estimated probability (82%)
• • No objective data provided on Magdalena Hedrzak to support backing the long price (7.0)