Mai Hontama vs Alina Charaeva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given nearly identical profiles and no clear edges in the provided research, the market’s heavy lean to Charaeva appears overstated; Hontama at 2.38 offers value based on our 48% win estimate, but uncertainty is high.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Hontama: ~42.0%; our estimate: 48%
- • Positive EV at current price: ~14.2% ROI per unit staked under our model
Pros
- + Price for Hontama (2.38) exceeds our minimum fair odds (2.083) given our probability estimate
- + Profiles and recent results provided show no clear advantage for Charaeva to justify the market gap
Cons
- - Research lacks head-to-head, ranking, injury and explicit surface/venue data—this increases uncertainty
- - Both players’ recent form is poor, making performance outcomes more volatile
Details
We note the market prices Alina Charaeva as a clear favorite at 1.57 (implied ~63.7%) while Mai Hontama is offered at 2.38 (implied ~42.0%). The available research shows nearly identical career records and recent results for both players (each ~10-21 across clay and hard), with no clear form or surface edge in the provided data. Given those near-parallels, we view the match as much closer to even than the market implies. We therefore assign a true win probability to Hontama of 48%, which is notably higher than the market-implied 42.0% for the 2.38 price. At that estimate Hontama represents positive expected value versus the current moneyline. We also flag high uncertainty due to lack of H2H, ranking, injury or surface-specific advantage in the provided sources, so the value is speculative but present at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) in the provided profiles
- • Recent match listings for both are similarly poor and provide no clear form advantage
- • Market prices favor Charaeva heavily (1.57) despite lack of differentiating data, creating potential value on Hontama