Highlights

• • Home implied probability 80.6% vs our home estimate 72%
• • Away price 4.0 > required 3.571, giving positive EV (+0.12)

Pros

• + Good upside: current market price leaves room for value if Mai's form continues to be weak
• + Simple, arithmetic-based edge: required odds threshold is clear and current book price clears it

Cons

• - Analysis relies only on Mai's public profile; we lack direct data on Meiling Wang and head-to-head context
• - Small-sample and tournament/surface nuance unknown increases outcome variance

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Mai Hontama (home) — 1/1.24 = 80.6% — to our assessment based on the available match research. Mai's 2024–2025 record in the provided profile is 10–21 with a clear pattern of recent losses in the last matches shown, indicating form concerns and vulnerability. Because we have no direct data on Meiling Wang in the provided research, we take a conservative approach and model a true win probability for the away player at 28% (home true win probability 72%). That implies the market is overpricing the home at ~80.6% implied vs our 72% estimate. The current away decimal price is 4.0, which exceeds the minimum fair price (1 / 0.28 = 3.571) needed to make this a positive expected value. Using the quoted 4.0 price yields EV = 0.28 * 4.0 - 1 = +0.12 (12% ROI per unit staked). Given Mai's poor recent results and the sizeable difference between market implied and our model, we see value on the away side at the posted price, while acknowledging elevated uncertainty because the opponent's form/H2H is not provided.

Key factors

• • Mai Hontama's documented 10–21 record and recent run of losses indicate poor form
• • Market-implied home probability (80.6%) appears higher than our assessed home probability (72%)
• • Current away price 4.0 is above the fair threshold (3.571) producing positive EV