Highlights

• • Home (Steiner) estimated true win probability: 53.0%
• • Price 1.98 offers positive EV (≈+0.049) under our conservative model

Pros

• + Current price (1.98) exceeds our min required odds (1.887) for Steiner
• + Conservative model accounts for home advantage while avoiding overstatement of edge

Cons

• - No form, injury, or H2H data available increases uncertainty
• - Bookmaker overround reduces clarity of market signal — edge is modest, not large

Details

We estimate Maik Steiner has a small true edge despite market favoring Dax Donders. The market-implied probabilities are ~50.5% for Steiner (1.98) and ~56.9% for Donders (1.758), with a significant book margin. With no additional form, injury, or H2H data available, we apply a conservative adjustment for home-court/venue familiarity in Haren and assume Steiner's true win probability is 53.0%. At decimal 1.98 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.53 * 1.98 - 1 ≈ 0.049), so Steiner represents a value bet versus the available prices. We remain cautious due to limited information and bookmaker overround.

Key factors

• • Market-implied odds make the away player the favorite while home price (1.98) implies only ~50.5% for Steiner
• • Home/venue familiarity in Haren likely gives a small edge to Steiner in a closely-matched contest
• • No external form, injury, or H2H data available — we apply a conservative probability uplift to account for home edge