Highlights

• • Market requires >75% chance for value on Maja; our estimate is ~65%
• • Disparity in career records favors Maja, but not to the degree the price suggests

Pros

• + Maja has far greater career experience and a superior overall win-loss record
• + Both players have clay/hard experience, so no extreme surface disadvantage is evident for Maja

Cons

• - Market price is steep (1.333) and would need to move significantly to offer value
• - Andrea's small sample size creates outcome variance — upsets remain possible

Details

The market prices Maja Chwalinska at 1.333 (implied ~75.0%). Using only the provided profiles, Maja has a much larger career sample (559-507) and an overall edge versus Andrea Lazaro Garcia (10-21), which supports Maja being the favorite. However, Maja's long-run win rate implied by her career figures is not consistent with a >75% win probability at this stage; Andrea's limited sample makes outcomes volatile but does not justify a market-implied 75% chance. We estimate Maja's true win probability around 65%, which is substantially below the market-implied probability, so the 1.333 price does not offer positive expected value. To be profitable we would need decimal odds of at least ~1.538 on Maja (or a much longer odds price on Andrea), which is well above the current favorite price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.333) = ~75% which is higher than our true estimate
• • Maja's much larger career sample and higher overall win rate favor her, but not overwhelmingly so
• • Andrea's small sample (10-21) increases variance; upset potential exists but not enough to justify current favorite price