Highlights

• • Our model: Chwalinska ~55% win expectancy
• • Current home odds (1.746) imply ~57.3% — slightly overpriced for the favorite

Pros

• + Chwalinska's larger career sample and higher career win percentage support favoritism
• + Both players have inconsistent recent results, reducing likelihood of an upset edge for Rus

Cons

• - Our edge is modest (55% vs market ~57.3%) so price sensitivity is high
• - Limited recent head-to-head or surface-specific edge in the provided data increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate Maja Chwalinska as the more likely winner given her much larger career sample and higher aggregate win rate versus Arantxa Rus's limited match volume and lower win percentage. Using career-level numbers as a baseline (Chwalinska ~52.5% career win rate vs Rus ~32.3%), adjusted for similar event level and recent mixed form for both, we set a conservative true-win probability for Chwalinska at 55.0%. At the current home moneyline 1.746 (implying ~57.3% market probability), the price does not offer value: EV = 0.55 * 1.746 - 1 = -0.040 (about -4.0% ROI). To be profitable we would need at least decimal 1.818 for Chwalinska (implied probability 55.0%). The away price (2.09) implies ~47.8% market probability, which is far above our assessment of Rus's chances and therefore also not value. Given negative EV at available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Chwalinska's much larger career sample and higher lifetime win rate versus Rus's limited match history
• • Both players show mixed recent form; no clear momentum advantage for Rus
• • Current market odds (1.746) imply a higher probability than our estimate, removing value