Highlights

• • Chwalinska's depth of career experience favors her in a final against a low-sample opponent
• • Current odds (1.806) exceed our fair-price threshold (1.667), producing positive expected value

Pros

• + Clear experience and career-win advantage
• + Current market price offers a measurable EV edge

Cons

• - Research lacks explicit surface and H2H data for this matchup, increasing uncertainty
• - Semenistaja may be improving despite poor overall record; small-sample variance can cause upsets

Details

We view Maja Chwalinska as the value side. Her career record (559-507) and long experience across all surfaces contrast sharply with Darja Semenistaja's limited sample (31 matches, 10-21). The market prices the home win at 1.806 (implied ~55.4%) but, based on experience, career win-rate dichotomy and Semenistaja's poor overall record and limited match exposure, we estimate Chwalinska's true win probability around 60%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.667, making the available 1.806 a positive EV opportunity. We recognize uncertainty from incomplete surface/H2H details and tournament-specific form, so our estimate is conservative.

Key factors

• • Large experience and superior career win rate for Chwalinska (559-507) versus Semenistaja's small sample and losing record (10-21)
• • Market-implied probability (1.806 => ~55.4%) is below our estimated true probability (60%), creating value
• • Uncertainty around surface and head-to-head increases variance but we used a conservative probability estimate