Highlights

• • Current odds underprice the home player relative to our model
• • Identical/neutral form and surface data reduce justification for the heavy favorite

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current public price (EV ~0.1745)
• + Decision backed by symmetry in career and recent results — market likely overreacting to an unclear factor

Cons

• - Research is limited and largely symmetric; our probability relies on a small subjective edge
• - If the market has private information (fitness, matchup specifics) our estimate may be too generous

Details

The market prices Oksana Selekhmeteva as a strong favorite (implied ~66%) while Maja Chwalinska is a sizable underdog (implied ~38%). The available profiles show near-identical career records and equally poor recent results for both players, with no clear injury or surface advantage to justify such a large gap. We estimate Chwalinska's true chance to win at ~45%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 38.3% derived from the 2.61 quote. At that estimate the home moneyline (2.61) yields positive expected value. Given the symmetric data, the market appears to overprice Selekhmeteva; backing Chwalinska represents a value bet at the current price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: home 38.3% vs away 66.4% (based on provided odds)
• • Player profiles and recent form in research are essentially symmetric—no clear edge to the favorite
• • No reported injuries or surface-specific advantage to justify heavy favoritism