Maja Pawelska vs Mia Horvit

Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Horvit (1.415) despite her weak documented form.
• • Home at 2.71 yields an estimated EV ≈ +0.247 per unit using our probability estimate.

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at available price based on our probability estimate.
• + Market-implied probability and player form in supplied data are starkly inconsistent, creating value.

Cons

• - Very limited data on the home player in the provided research increases uncertainty.
• - Our estimate must compensate for unknown match-specific factors (surface, injuries, head-to-head), raising risk.

Details

We see a large disconnect between the market-implied probability and what the limited form data suggests. The current market prices put Mia Horvit (away) at 1.415 (implied ~70.6%) and Maja Pawelska (home) at 2.71 (implied ~36.9%). Horvit's documented career span in the research shows a 10-21 record (≈32.3% win rate) and recent poor form, which argues her true win probability in this match is substantially below the market-implied 70.6%. Allowing for adjustment for match context and surface uncertainty (no positive form edge shown in the supplied data), we estimate the home player’s true win probability at 46.0%. At the offered home price of 2.71 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.46*2.71 - 1 ≈ +0.247 per unit staked). We therefore recommend backing the home underdog because the market appears to overprice Horvit relative to her recent results. Our estimate is cautious given limited data on the home player and other match specifics, which elevates model uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Market implies Mia Horvit win probability ≈ 70.6% (odds 1.415) which conflicts with her documented 10-21 career record (~32.3% win rate).
• • Horvit's recent form in the supplied data is poor, suggesting the market overvalues her here.
• • Limited publicly supplied information on Maja Pawelska increases uncertainty but does not justify the large favorite price for Horvit.