Highlights

• • Kawahashi: 19-17 career record and more match play
• • Ochi: poor recent form (3-10) and multiple recent losses on hard courts

Pros

• + We are aligned with market view that Kawahashi is the stronger player
• + Clear quantitative gap in match experience and win rate favoring Kawahashi

Cons

• - Market price for Kawahashi (1.55) implies a probability higher than our estimate — no EV
• - Ochi’s price (2.30) would require a much higher true probability than his form supports

Details

We evaluate the market favourite Yuta Kawahashi (away) at 1.55 versus Makoto Ochi (home) at 2.30. Kawahashi has a substantially larger sample (36 matches, 19-17) and a better win rate and experience on hard courts than Ochi (13 matches, 3-10) whose recent results show multiple losses on hard. Given Kawahashi's superior record and form, we estimate his true chance to win this match at about 61%. That implied probability (1/1.55 = 64.5%) priced by the market is slightly higher than our estimate, so there is no positive expected value at the current prices. Conversely, Ochi's historical win rate and recent form do not justify backing him at 2.30. Therefore we recommend no bet: neither side offers value at the current odds.

Key factors

• • Kawahashi has larger sample size and better overall win rate (19-17 vs 3-10)
• • Both players have hard-court experience, but Ochi’s recent form shows consistent losses on hard
• • Market-implied probability for Kawahashi (≈64.5%) exceeds our estimated true probability (61%)