Malaika Rapolu vs Mary Lewis

Highlights

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for home is ~88%, which is far above what the data supports
• • Estimated true win probability ~55% leads to negative EV at current prices

Pros

• + Market price heavily favors home — potential opportunity only if we had evidence supporting a much higher true probability
• + Simple, conservative model avoids overbetting on thin data

Cons

• - Research provides minimal differentiation between players, increasing uncertainty
• - EV is clearly negative at the supplied market price for the favorite

Details

We see both players with essentially identical, limited ITF-level records (10-21) and mixed surfaces listed (clay, hard) with no injury or H2H information in the research. The market price heavily favors the home player (1.137 -> implied ~88% win chance), which is not supported by the available form and data—there is no clear performance edge that would justify such a large gap. Using a conservative, evidence-based estimate that accounts for similar records and no distinguishing factors, we estimate the home win probability at ~55%. At that true probability the current home price (1.137) yields negative expected value (EV = 0.55*1.137 - 1 ≈ -0.375), so there is no value to back the favorite at current prices. To obtain positive EV on the home side we would need decimal odds ≥ 1.818 based on our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical listed career records (10-21) and similar recent form in the supplied data
• • No injuries, H2H, or clear surface advantage are provided to justify a large market gap
• • Current market implies ~88% for the home side, which is not supported by the available evidence
• • Small sample and limited data increase uncertainty; conservative probability assigned