Highlights

• • Estimated true probability for away (S. Markova): 78%
• • EV on favorite at 1.22 is negative (~-4.8%), so no recommended bet

Pros

• + Market pricing reflects a clear favorite, reducing likelihood of mispricing
• + We are conservative given the absence of confirmatory data (injury, surface, form), avoiding speculative value calls

Cons

• - If unknown injury or extreme surface advantage exists in favor of the underdog, our conservative model could miss value
• - Limited information increases uncertainty around the exact true probability

Details

We estimate Sofia Markova (away) is the clear favorite and assign her a conservative true win probability of 78%. The market decimal price of 1.22 implies ~81.97% raw probability (unadjusted for vig) and is somewhat shorter than our estimate after accounting for uncertainty and bookmaker margin. Using our estimate, EV on the favorite = 0.78 * 1.22 - 1 = -0.048 (a -4.8% ROI), so there is no value on the favorite at 1.22. Conversely, the home underdog at 4.00 would need >25.0% true win probability to be +EV; we judge an upset probability well below that threshold given the market gap and lack of contradictory information. Given the absence of independent injury, surface, form, or H2H data to materially shift probabilities in the underdog's favor, we refrain from recommending a bet.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Sofia Markova at 1.22, implying a very high expected win rate
• • No independent data provided on surface, injuries, form, or H2H to justify diverging from the market
• • Home underdog would require >25% win probability at 4.00 to offer value; our conservative estimate is below that