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Malmo IF vs Timraa IK play on 2025-10-11 13:15 in the SHL (Ice Hockey). Compare Ice Hockey odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 10.0%. Suggested side: Malmo IF. Moneyline — Home: 2.2 (45.5%), Away: 2.66 (37.6%).
Fast-paced 6v6 on ice; three 20-minute periods with overtime rules for ties.
Our lean: Malmo IF. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.2, Away: 2.66. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Malmo IF moneyline given current prices.
We compare the listed moneyline (Malmo 2.20, implied win ~45.5%) to a conservative estimated true win probability for Malmo. Given the home-ice factor in the SHL and absence of contrary injury/form information, we conservatively estimate Malmo's true win probability at 50.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.00, so the current 2.20 offers value. EV calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.50 * 2.20 - 1 = +0.10 (10% expected ROI). The market's implied probabilities are compressed and show a large bookmaker margin, which enhances the relative value on Malmo at the available price. Because our estimate is conservative and information is limited, we recommend Malmo only because the live quoted price materially exceeds the conservative fair price.
Summary: We find value on Malmo at 2.20 using a conservative 50% win probability – the market price offers ~10% expected ROI versus our estimate.