Manas Dhamne vs Luca Wiedenmann
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Manas Dhamne at 1.391, estimating his true win probability at 78%, producing an EV of ~8.4% versus the current market price.
Highlights
- • Current decimal price 1.391 implies 71.9% — we estimate 78%
- • Positive EV of ~0.084 (8.4% ROI) at current market price
Pros
- + Clear experience advantage and greater match sample
- + Familiarity with hard courts and prior Monastir participation
- + Market price offers a measurable edge vs our probability model
Cons
- - Manas has had mixed recent results, which introduces some form risk
- - ITF events can be volatile; small-sample variance (especially for Luca) can produce upsets
Details
We view Manas Dhamne as the clear favorite based on comparative experience and a larger match sample (49 matches vs Luca Wiedenmann's 7) and stronger familiarity with hard-court events in Monastir. The market decimal price for Manas is 1.391, which implies a win probability of ~71.9%. We estimate Manas's true win probability at 78%; that is higher than the market-implied probability and therefore presents value. The EV calculation at the quoted price (EV = p * odds - 1) yields a positive expected return (~8.4% per unit stake). We also account for market overround (~7.5%), Luca's limited match history and recent 2-5 record, and Manas's deeper competitive exposure despite some mixed recent results. No injuries or conditions in the provided research reduce Manas's edge materially, so we recommend taking the home moneyline at current prices.
Key factors
- • Manas has substantially more match experience (49 matches) vs Luca's 7 matches
- • Both players have played on hard, but Manas shows more exposure to Monastir/hard events
- • Market-implied probability (71.9%) is below our estimated true probability (78%), creating value