Manas Manoj Dhamne vs Cesar Bouchelaghem
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find modest positive value on Cesar Bouchelaghem at 2.35 based on his limited positive track record and familiarity with Monastir hard courts, but uncertainty on the opponent and small sample size make this a higher-risk value play.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~42.6% for Cesar; we estimate ~45%
- • Offered odds (2.35) exceed our fair threshold (≈2.222), producing a small positive EV
Pros
- + Cesar has recorded wins at Monastir on hard courts, reducing venue/surface uncertainty
- + Current odds (2.35) provide >0 EV under conservative probability estimate
Cons
- - Very limited sample size (16 career matches) increases model uncertainty
- - No available information on the home player (Manas Manoj Dhamne) or matchup specifics
Details
Bookmaker odds imply Cesar Bouchelaghem has ~42.6% chance to win at 2.35. Our assessment, based on his 9-7 career record (56% win rate on his limited sample), demonstrated experience at Monastir on hard courts, and recent split results in the same venue, suggests Cesar's true chance is higher than the market-implied probability. The available research shows he has competed and won at Monastir on hard courts and has a small positive career edge; in the absence of negative injury or form flags and with no positive evidence on the opponent, we conservatively estimate Cesar's win probability at 45%. At that probability the fair decimal odds are ~2.222, making the offered 2.35 a value price. We acknowledge high uncertainty due to the small sample size and lack of information about the home player (Manas Manoj Dhamne), so the recommendation is a value-seeking, higher-risk play rather than a confident pick.
Key factors
- • Cesar Bouchelaghem career record 9-7 (small sample) indicating modest winning history
- • Evidence of recent matches at Monastir on hard courts (familiarity with venue/surface)
- • Bookmaker-implied probability (42.6%) appears lower than our conservative true probability estimate (45%)