Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.21) ≈ 82.6% vs our estimate 78% → negative EV on favorite
• • Marques's career and recent form (11-25, multiple August losses) lower the away probability below the breakeven point for 3.95

Pros

• + Market consensus correctly identifies the favorite; pricing reflects perceived gap
• + We have clear negative EV signal at available prices, so avoiding a bet preserves bankroll

Cons

• - We lack direct data on Manas Manoj Dhamne in the research set, so our estimate relies primarily on the away player's poor form
• - If there are unreported injuries or surface advantages for Marques, our probability could be too pessimistic

Details

We estimate the home player (Manas Manoj Dhamne) to be a clear favorite vs Diogo Marques based on the research: Marques carries a 11-25 (≈30.6%) career win rate over 36 matches and has shown poor recent form with multiple losses in August 2025. Translating that form into a match probability we estimate Marques's chance to win at roughly 0.22, implying the home win probability ≈0.78. The market moneyline of 1.21 for the home player implies a win probability of ≈0.826, which is higher than our estimated 0.78 — therefore the current home price offers negative expected value. At the away price (3.95) Marques would need a true win probability >0.253 to be +EV; our estimate (~0.22) is below that, so the away side is also negative EV. Given both sides are priced to remove value relative to our probabilities, we do not recommend a bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Diogo Marques career record is 11-25 (≈30.6% win rate) with poor recent results
• • Market heavily favors home at 1.21 (implied P ≈82.6%), which exceeds our home probability estimate
• • Away price 3.95 requires >25.3% true win probability to be profitable; Marques's recent form suggests lower chance