Manas Manoj Dhamne vs Luca Wiedenmann
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a modest value backing the home favorite at 1.39 based on the opponent's poor recorded form; the estimated ROI is ~4.25% with elevated uncertainty from limited data.
Highlights
- • Home 1.39 implies ~71.9% — we estimate 75% true probability
- • Positive but modest EV of ~4.25% per unit staked
Pros
- + Market price is slightly generous relative to opponent's weak recent record
- + Clear, quantifiable positive EV at current widely-available price
Cons
- - Very limited public data on both players' broader form and head-to-head context
- - Small-sample records and lack of injury/condition details make the edge fragile
Details
We see the market pricing the home player, Manas Manoj Dhamne, at 1.39 (implied ~71.9%). Luca Wiedenmann's available profile shows a 2-5 career record with recent losses in August 2025, indicating poor form and limited match success on the recorded surfaces. Given the lack of positive data for Wiedenmann and the market favoring the home player, we estimate the true probability for the home win at 75.0%, which is slightly above the market-implied 71.9% and therefore offers value. At our 75% estimate, the minimum fair decimal price is 1.333 and the current price of 1.39 yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.75 * 1.39 - 1 = 0.0425). We acknowledge uncertainty due to the small sample size and limited data on the home player's form, so the edge is modest but positive.
Key factors
- • Away player Luca Wiedenmann has a 2-5 recorded match record and recent losses (weak recent form)
- • Market-implied probability for home (71.9%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (75%)
- • Limited data and small sample sizes increase uncertainty despite a modest positive edge