Manas Dhamne vs Arthur Nagel

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Nagel (36.1%) appears too low given similar career records
• • At our estimated true probability (46%), betting Nagel yields ~27.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Significant edge between market-implied and our estimated probabilities
• + No reported injuries or clear form advantage favoring Dhamne in the provided research

Cons

• - Player profiles are limited and recent-match detail is sparse, increasing uncertainty
• - Dhamne has direct recent experience in Monastir (albeit with losses), which could mitigate some of the edge

Details

The market makes Manas Dhamne a heavy favorite at 1.382 (implied ~72.4%) while Arthur Nagel is priced at 2.77 (implied ~36.1%). The available profiles show both players with near-.500 career records (Dhamne 24-25, Nagel 17-17) and mixed recent results; neither profile provides evidence of a dominant edge for Dhamne that would justify a >70% win probability on hard courts. Dhamne has recent play in Monastir but those results include losses; Nagel has comparable experience on hard and other surfaces and recent wins/losses that suggest closer parity. Given the lack of injury notes and similar baseline performance, we estimate Nagel's true win probability substantially higher than the market-implied 36.1% — around 46%. Using odds 2.77 (current market price), this produces positive EV: EV = 0.46 * 2.77 - 1 = 0.274. To be profitable, Nagel only needs to be >36.1% likely to win; we assess his real chance at ~46%, so the away price represents value. We remain cautious due to small-sample profiles and limited match-level detail, so risk is medium.

Key factors

• • Market implies Nagel only ~36% chance; our read is closer to ~46%
• • Career records and recent results for both players are near parity (no clear dominant player)
• • Dhamne's local Monastir results include losses, reducing the strength of the heavy favorite line