Manas Dhamne vs Cesar Bouchelaghem
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We identify value on Cesar Bouchelaghem at 2.65 based on a 42% estimated win probability, producing an estimated EV of ~11.3% versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Book price for the favorite (1.433) looks overstated relative to available form
- • Underdog Bouchelaghem priced above our fair odds threshold (2.381) — value present
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds (2.65)
- + Bouchelaghem has recent successful results at Monastir/harder-court events
Cons
- - Small sample size for Bouchelaghem increases uncertainty around the 42% estimate
- - Dhamne's greater match volume and experience could still favor him despite recent losses
Details
We believe Cesar Bouchelaghem (away) is priced attractively at 2.65. The market implies Manas Dhamne has ~69.8% win probability (1/1.433) which looks high given Dhamne's heavy schedule, near-even overall record (24-25), and some recent losses in Monastir/Challenger-level events. Bouchelaghem has a smaller sample but a positive 9-7 record and recent matches in Monastir on hard courts, including a recent win at the M15 Monastir event. Balancing form, sample size, and surface familiarity, we estimate Bouchelaghem's true win probability at 42% (0.42). At the current decimal odds of 2.65 (odds_used_for_ev = 2.65), EV = 0.42 * 2.65 - 1 = 0.113 (11.3% ROI), so this represents positive value compared with the implied market price. The minimum fair decimal odds for this probability is 1/0.42 = 2.381, so the offered 2.65 exceeds that threshold and offers value.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Dhamne (1.433) seems inflated given his uneven recent form and heavy match load
- • Bouchelaghem has positive recent results in Monastir/hard-court events and a winning overall record in fewer matches
- • Current price 2.65 requires only ~37.7% probability to break even; our estimated 42% implies value