Manas Dhamne vs Diogo Marques
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on the away (Diogo Marques) at 3.91 based on a 27% estimated win probability, producing an estimated +5.6% EV versus the current market price.
Highlights
- • Home price (1.206) looks over-priced relative to available form data
- • Away at 3.91 exceeds our min required odds (3.704) for a positive edge
Pros
- + Current odds give a measurable positive EV based on conservative probability estimate
- + Profiles show both players on similar surfaces, reducing surface-based uncertainty
Cons
- - Limited data and no head-to-head or injury information in the research increases uncertainty
- - Lower-tier ITF events have high variance; single-match upsets and volatility are common
Details
We see a clear market skew toward the home favourite (1.206 implied ~82.9%). Using only the provided player profiles, Diogo Marques has a career win rate (~11-25 = ~30.6%) while Manas Dhamne is stronger overall (~24-25 = ~49.0%), but those raw win-rates do not justify an 83% market probability for Dhamne in an ITF R1 matchup. Given both players have experience on hard and clay from the profiles and no injury or H2H information was supplied, we estimate Marques' true win probability at 27%. At the current away price 3.91 this converts to positive expected value (EV = 0.27 * 3.91 - 1 = +0.0557, ≈ +5.6% ROI). By contrast, Dhamne at 1.206 implies too high a win probability versus our estimate and yields negative EV. Therefore we recommend the away (Diogo Marques) only because current odds offer value versus our estimated true probability.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors home at 1.206 (implied ~82.9%) which appears overstated given player records
- • Both players have matches on hard and clay; no injury or H2H info provided to materially shift probabilities
- • Marques' career win rate (~30.6%) suggests his true upset chance is materially higher than the market-implied probability for his price