Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~61.7% vs our estimate 72%
• • Estimated ROI at current price: ~16.6% per 1 unit stake

Pros

• + Clear negative form indicators for the away player provide a basis for a higher home probability
• + Current odds (1.62) are sufficiently long versus our conservative probability to produce positive EV

Cons

• - No direct data on Mandegar Farzami (home) or H2H — increases model risk
• - Match conditions, injuries, and final status are unknown and could materially change outcomes

Details

We estimate meaningful value on the home side. The market price of Mandegar Farzami at 1.62 implies a win probability of about 61.7% (1/1.62). Based on the provided research, Ayline Esina Samardzic has a weak overall record (10-21) and very poor recent form, including consecutive losses on both clay and hard courts, which suggests she is significantly underperforming. With no contradictory data about Mandegar and a clear negative signal on Ayline, we conservatively estimate Mandegar's true win probability at 72%. At that probability the fair decimal is 1.389, so the current price of 1.62 offers positive expected value: EV = 0.72 * 1.62 - 1 = 0.1664 (≈16.6% ROI). We acknowledge uncertainty due to lack of opponent-specific, surface, injury, and head-to-head detail, so we have priced that into a conservative 72% estimate rather than a higher number.

Key factors

• • Away player Ayline Esina Samardzic has poor overall record (10-21) and weak recent form
• • Bookmaker price 1.62 implies 61.7% — we estimate a higher true probability (~72%)
• • Limited data on Mandegar increases model uncertainty but also suggests bookmaker may be underestimating home edge