Highlights

• • Market-implied probabilities include a ~7.6% book margin
• • Current away odds (2.37) fall short of our required threshold (2.50) for value

Pros

• + Conservative probability assumptions reduce likelihood of overestimating value
• + Clear thresholds provided for when value would occur (odds >= 2.50 for away)

Cons

• - No match-specific data (form, surface preference, injuries, H2H) — increases uncertainty
• - Small negative EV gaps are close to zero and could flip with new information or line movement

Details

We assume a conservative true-win split with the home player (Mandegar Farzami) slightly stronger based on the market favorite status and typical ITF QF dynamics. Converting the market prices yields implied probabilities of ~65.4% for the home player and ~42.2% for the away player, but that includes an estimated bookmaker overround (~7.6%). After shrinking the market edge and applying conservative judgment, we estimate Mandegar's true win probability at 60% and Ayline's at 40%. At those estimates the minimum fair decimal odds for value are 1.667 (home) and 2.500 (away). The current prices (home 1.529, away 2.37) are both shorter than our required thresholds, producing negative expected value on either side (home EV ≈ -0.083, away EV ≈ -0.052 using the quoted 2.37). Given both sides are negative EV under our model, we do not recommend a bet here.

Key factors

• • No external form/injury/H2H data available — we apply conservative, market-adjusted priors
• • Market shows a clear favorite (home 1.529) but includes an overround (~7.6%)
• • Value requires away odds >= 2.50 or home odds >= 1.667 under our probability estimates