Highlights

• • Home implied probability: 58.9%; our estimate: 63%
• • Estimated ROI on a 1-unit stake: ~7.0%

Pros

• + Clear negative form signal for the away player (Irem Kurt)
• + Current odds (1.699) offer a >0 EV vs our conservative probability

Cons

• - No direct performance data for Mandegar Farzami in the supplied research increases model risk
• - Small sample and tournament-stage volatility (SF) can produce upsets

Details

We value-priced the market using the available player data. The listed moneyline implies the home (Mandegar Farzami) has ~58.9% chance (1/1.699). The only detailed research shows Irem Kurt with a weak 10-21 career record and poor recent form, indicating she is likely the weaker finalist. Given Kurt's low win rate (≈32%) and string of recent losses on clay/hard, we estimate the true win probability for the home player is higher than the market implies. Using a conservative true probability of 63% against the listed home price of 1.699 produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.63 * 1.699 - 1 ≈ 0.070). This margin appears to represent a modest value opportunity versus the book's implied probability. The recommendation is cautious because we have no direct data on Mandegar Farzami's results in the provided research, so we keep the edge modest rather than aggressive.

Key factors

• • Irem Kurt career record 10-21 and weak recent form (mostly losses)
• • Market-implied home probability (58.9%) is below our estimated true probability (63%)
• • Limited direct data on Mandegar Farzami increases uncertainty despite apparent value