Highlights

• • Implied market probability for home is only ~15.4%, while we estimate ~30%
• • EV at current price (6.50) is strongly positive at +0.95 per unit staked

Pros

• + Large margin between market-implied and our estimated probability creates strong theoretical value
• + Both players' profiles and recent form do not justify the extreme favorite pricing

Cons

• - Limited dataset in research — no head-to-head, detailed match fitness, or live odds context to further refine the estimate
• - Heavy market pressure on the favorite could reflect information not present in the provided research (late scratches, conditions)

Details

We see an extreme market price: the away moneyline of 1.10 implies ~90.9% win probability while the home price of 6.50 implies ~15.4%. The research shows both players have essentially identical records (10-21) and identical recent results on similar surfaces, with no reported injuries or clear form advantage. Given those facts, the market's heavy bias to the away player looks mispriced. Conservatively estimating Manon Arcangioli's true chance at 30.0% (reflecting parity but allowing for some market favoritism toward Alice Gillan), the home price of 6.50 produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 6.50 - 1 = 0.95). The breakeven probability against 6.50 is ~15.385%, so any realistic assessment well above that (which our parity-based view supports) represents value. We therefore recommend backing the home underdog at current odds because the implied market probability is far lower than our estimated true probability.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records and recent form (10-21), suggesting a roughly even matchup
• • Market implies an outsized favorite (away 1.10) that is inconsistent with the available player data
• • No injury or surface advantage information in the research to justify such a large favorite price