Manon Arcangioli vs Petra Marcinko

Highlights

• • Implied probability for Arcangioli is only ~11.5% while comparable career data suggest a much higher chance
• • A conservative true probability (~20%) still produces substantial positive EV at 8.71

Pros

• + Large margin between implied probability and our conservative estimated probability
• + Research shows no clear justification (injury/form/ranking) for such a heavy market bias

Cons

• - Available player data is limited and identical for both players — hidden factors (ranking, seed, local conditions) could justify the market
• - Longshot outcomes carry natural variance; model relies on parity implied by limited supplied data

Details

We see a large market skew: Petra Marcinko is priced at 1.103 (implied win probability ~90.7%) while Manon Arcangioli is a longshot at 8.71 (implied ~11.5%). The supplied research shows effectively-parity career records and recent form for both players (both listed 10-21 over the same span with recent losses), with no injury or surface advantage reported. Given the comparable profiles in the available data, the market-implied probability for Arcangioli (~11.5%) looks implausibly low. Even a conservative re-assessment that Arcangioli has a 20% chance to win (reflecting parity and tournament-level variance) produces positive expected value versus the quoted 8.71. Therefore we recommend backing the home underdog at current prices because the odds materially exceed what the available performance data justify.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Marcinko (1.103) despite similar recorded form and records
• • Both players show comparable win-loss profiles in the supplied research (10-21), suggesting closer match-up than prices imply
• • No injury, surface, or H2H information in research to justify the extreme price gap