Highlights

• • Sharipov presents a materially better win-rate in the supplied data
• • Current market price (~55% implied) is below our assessed chance (60%)

Pros

• + Clear win-rate advantage in provided career sample
• + Both players have hard-court experience, reducing surface uncertainty

Cons

• - Recent match listings for both players include losses, indicating form can be mixed
• - Records provided are limited snapshots; no head-to-head or detailed fitness/injury info available

Details

We estimate value on Marat Sharipov. The market price of 1.82 implies a win probability of ~54.95%, but Sharipov's career win rate in the provided data (41-24, ~63%) and his clear experience on hard courts lead us to a higher true probability estimate (~60%). Taro Daniel's provided record (22-31, ~41%) is markedly weaker in win percentage in the available sample. Both players have hard-court experience, so surface does not materially favor Daniel. Comparing our 60% estimate to the market-implied ~55% produces positive expected value at the current 1.82 decimal price.

Key factors

• • Sharipov's stronger win-loss record in the provided sample (41-24 vs 22-31)
• • Both players have hard-court experience; no strong surface advantage to the underdog in the research
• • Market-implied probability (≈54.95%) is below our assessed true probability (60%), creating value