Highlights

• • Market implies Sharipov 45.2% but we estimate ~48%
• • Positive but modest EV (≈6.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Sharipov's strong Challenger-level win rate supports higher true probability
• + Current price (2.21) exceeds our fair odds threshold (≈2.083)

Cons

• - Sharipov has little recorded grass experience versus Daniel
• - Edge is modest; uncertainty around surface transfer reduces confidence

Details

We estimate value on Marat Sharipov because the market prices him at ~45.2% implied probability (2.21) while our read of the available data assigns him a higher true chance (~48%). Sharipov's season-long win rate (41-24) indicates consistent match-winning ability at the Challenger level, and although his recorded matches are primarily on clay/hard, the drop-off to grass is not necessarily large against a journeyman opponent. Taro Daniel has more grass experience and higher-profile results but a poorer overall win-loss record (22-31) and mixed recent form; that reduces the margin by which he should be favorite here. Comparing implied vs. estimated probabilities (market 45.2% vs our 48%) yields a positive expected value at the quoted 2.21 price. We view this as a modest edge rather than a heavy favorite pick—value is present because the market likely overweights surface familiarity and ATP-level name recognition relative to Sharipov's recent win rate.

Key factors

• • Sharipov strong season record (41-24) indicating consistent form at Challenger level
• • Daniel has grass experience and ATP-level results but a weaker overall win-loss record (22-31)
• • Market implied probability for Sharipov (45.2%) appears lower than our estimate (48%), creating value