Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Dhakshineswar Suresh
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing the away player Dhakshineswar Suresh at 2.25; our conservative 50% win estimate produces a +12.5% expected return.
Highlights
- • Suresh has a superior seasonal win rate and primarily plays hard courts
- • Current odds (2.25) imply ~44.4% but we estimate ~50% true chance
Pros
- + Positive EV at current widely-available price (2.25)
- + Suresh's record and surface alignment support a higher true win probability than market-implied
Cons
- - Limited dataset and no head-to-head or injury details in the research
- - Huesler has more matches across surfaces; market may reflect factors not present in provided data
Details
We believe Dhakshineswar Suresh represents value at the current away price. Research shows Suresh has a stronger win-loss profile this season (19-8, primarily on hard courts) compared with Marc-Andrea Huesler (26-24 across surfaces) and Suresh's record and surface specialization suggest he's better-suited to this matchup if the match is on hard. Huesler's recent listed matches include losses on hard, indicating form concerns. The market prices Huesler at 1.65 (implied 60.6%); given Suresh's superior seasonal win rate and hard-court focus, we estimate Suresh's true win probability about 50.0%, which makes the current decimal price of 2.25 (implied 44.4%) a positive expected-value opportunity. Using a conservative 50% true probability yields EV = 0.5 * 2.25 - 1 = +0.125 (12.5% ROI) — enough to recommend the away side under a value-driven approach.
Key factors
- • Suresh's stronger season win-loss record (19-8) and hard-court specialization
- • Huesler's weaker overall record (26-24) and recent losses on hard
- • Market prices favor Huesler at 1.65 despite Suresh's form and surface fit, creating value at 2.25