Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Sumit Nagal

Highlights

• • Away implied probability (35.7%) is below our 39% estimate
• • No reported injuries and surface exposure is similar for both players

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge between our probability and the market for Nagal
• + Market overprices Huesler given his modest career win rate and mixed recent form

Cons

• - Limited matchup and head-to-head info increases variance
• - Both players show inconsistency in recent results; model uncertainty remains

Details

We find value on Sumit Nagal at 2.80. The market implies Nagal has a 35.7% chance (1/2.8) while Marc-Andrea Huesler's 1.44 implies a 69.4% chance. The raw career win rates in the research show Huesler at ~52% (26-24) and Nagal at ~44% (24-31), which supports Huesler as favourite but not to the degree priced by 1.44. Given both players have experience across surfaces and the recent form listed is mixed for both, we conservatively project Nagal's true win probability at 39%. That converts to fair decimal odds of ~2.564, making the available 2.80 a positive EV situation. No injuries are reported in the provided material and there is no head-to-head information, so we apply a conservative margin for uncertainty but still detect value on Nagal.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: home 69.4% vs away 35.7%
• • Career records: Huesler 26-24 (~52%) vs Nagal 24-31 (~44%) — favours Huesler but not by market margin
• • Recent form mixed for both players and both play multiple surfaces (reduces strong surface edge)