Marcella Dessolis vs Barbara Dessolis
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The home player (Marcella) represents a value bet at 3.20 based on a conservative 45% win probability versus the market's 31.25% implied chance, yielding an estimated EV of +0.44 per unit staked.
Highlights
- • Market implies only 31.25% for home; our conservative model gives ~45%
- • Positive EV of +0.44 at current decimal odds 3.20
Pros
- + Significant gap between our estimated probability and market implied probability
- + Both players' records and recent form do not justify such a heavy favorite
Cons
- - Limited data on surface, head-to-head, and injuries increases uncertainty
- - If there is an unreported advantage for the away player (fitness, local conditions), the value evaporates
Details
We find value on Marcella (home) because the market price of 3.20 implies a 31.25% win probability, while our assessment — based on nearly identical career records (10-21 each), similar recent form, and no clear surface or injury advantage for Barbara — gives Marcella a materially higher chance. With limited H2H and ambiguous surface info we remain conservative but still view the matchup as roughly even-to-slightly-in-favor-of-the-home player; we estimate Marcella's true win probability at 45%. That produces a positive expected value versus the market price (EV = 0.45 * 3.20 - 1 = 0.44). Given the heavy market lean to the away side (1.31, implied ~76%), the home price looks mispriced and offers value if our conservative assessment holds.
Key factors
- • Both players have near-identical career records and recent results, suggesting similar base strength
- • Bookmaker heavily favors the away player (1.31 implied) without clear justification from available form/injuries
- • Surface and direct H2H are unknown, so we use a conservative 45% true-win estimate for the home side