Highlights

• • Career win rate ~32.3% (10-21)
• • Current price (2.8) implies 35.7% — higher than our estimate

Pros

• + Underdog status could produce value if unseen factors change (not present in research)
• + Has match experience on hard and clay surfaces

Cons

• - Subpar career record and recent losses in the provided sample
• - No positive edge vs implied market probability at current odds

Details

We estimate Marcella Dessolis' true match win probability based on the provided career record (10 wins in 31 matches = ~32.3%) and recent results showing continued losses. The market moneyline of 2.8 implies a 35.7% chance, which is slightly higher than our estimate, so the price does not offer positive expected value. With no head-to-head or injury information on Francesca Gandolfi in the research and Dessolis' 10-21 career record and recent losses on the recorded surfaces, we judge the market’s favoritism toward Gandolfi reasonable and do not recommend backing Dessolis at the current odds.

Key factors

• • Dessolis career win rate 10/31 (~32.3%)
• • Recent form shows losses in the listed recent matches
• • Market implies Dessolis is a weaker favorite than the away player (home 2.8 vs away 1.4) and offers no upside at current price