Marcello Serafini vs Dali Blanch
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Blanch is rightly favored but 1.257 understates the remaining uncertainty; our model estimates his win chance ~75% which yields negative EV at the current market price.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Blanch: ~79.5% (1/1.257)
- • Our estimated true probability for Blanch: 75% → fair odds ~1.333
Pros
- + Blanch has a clearly better career win-rate and much larger match sample
- + Both players are experienced on clay so no surprise factor from surface
Cons
- - Blanch's market price is very short (1.257) leaving little or no value
- - Serafini's limited recent match sample and recent losses make an upset less convincing
Details
We compare the market price (Away Dali Blanch 1.257 implied ~79.5%) to our independent assessment. Blanch has a substantially stronger record (46-29) and more matches (75) versus Serafini (16-21, 37 matches), and both have clay/hard experience. We estimate Blanch's true win probability around 75% given the gap in career win-rate and experience but note recent mixed results for both. At our estimated 0.75 probability the fair decimal price is ~1.333; the current quote (1.257) implies a higher win probability than we assign, producing a negative expected value. We also considered the upset (home) line: Serafini's 3.58 implies a required win probability of ~27.9% to be +EV; given his recent losses and smaller sample we do not see reliable evidence he is that likely to win. Therefore no side offers positive value at the current widely-available prices.
Key factors
- • Dali Blanch has a stronger career record and far more matches (46-29 vs 16-21)
- • Both players have clay experience, so surface likely neutral — no major advantage for Serafini
- • Market strongly favors Blanch (implied ~79.5%) which exceeds our estimated win probability