Marcelo Arevalo Gonzalez vs Gabriel Ghetu
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No bet — current favorite price (1.45) embeds too much probability versus our conservative true estimate (~60%), producing negative EV.
Highlights
- • Implied home win probability at 1.45 is ~68.97%
- • Our conservative true probability estimate for the home side is ~60% => required odds 1.667+
Pros
- + Market clearly prefers the home player, indicating a plausible favorite
- + Available data on the away player shows vulnerability, supporting a home edge in principle
Cons
- - Price 1.45 is too short vs our estimate — negative expected value
- - Research lacks any data on the home player, increasing model uncertainty
Details
We estimate that the market is overstating the favorite (home) at 1.45. The only available player data is for Gabriel Ghetu (away): a modest 19-16 record at lower-tier events with recent losses on clay, suggesting limited upside and some vulnerability but not enough to justify shifting our estimate dramatically in his favor. Given the lack of any data on Marcelo Arevalo Gonzalez in the provided research, we conservatively model the home player as the stronger/expected winner but assign a true win probability (~60%) materially below the implied market probability (≈68.97% for 1.45). That yields a required minimum decimal price of ~1.667 to break even. At the current price of 1.45 the expected value is negative (EV ≈ -0.13 per unit), so no value exists at available odds and we therefore recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Limited data available: only Gabriel Ghetu profile (19-16 at lower-tier events)
- • Ghetu shows recent poor results on clay which suggests inconsistency
- • Market implies ~69% for the home favorite; our conservative true estimate is ~60%
- • Insufficient information about the home player in the provided research increases uncertainty