Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera vs Aaron Gil Garcia
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market severely overprices the favorite; Barrios is the strong favorite but the 1.01 price offers no value because it requires near-absolute certainty that we cannot justify.
Highlights
- • Barrios: substantially larger sample and better win record
- • Current odds (1.01) demand >99% win probability for positive EV — unrealistic given available data
Pros
- + Clear qualitative edge: more matches and better overall record for Barrios
- + Both players have experience on common surfaces, reducing unknown surface-based variance
Cons
- - Bookmaker odds are too short on the favorite to offer value
- - No head-to-head or injury data provided that could push probability to near-certainty
Details
The market price (home 1.01, away 12.5) implies the home player must be virtually certain to win (~99.0%). Our assessment, based on the provided records and recent form, gives Marcelo Tomás Barrios Vera a high but not near-certain win probability. Barrios has far greater match volume (49-33 in 82 matches) and more consistent results than Aaron Gil Garcia (4-8 in 12 matches), so he is the clear favorite; however we cannot justify a >99% true win probability. At the quoted home price of 1.01 the required true probability for positive EV is ~99.01%, which is well above any reasonable estimate derived from the available data, so there is no value on either side at current prices.
Key factors
- • Experience and match volume advantage for Barrios (49-33 across 82 matches) versus limited sample for Gil Garcia (4-8 across 12 matches)
- • Recent form indicates Barrios is the steadier performer at higher-level events; Gil Garcia has fewer wins and less top-level exposure
- • Market price implies an implausibly high certainty (≈99%) which is not supported by records or form — no positive EV at 1.01