Highlights

• • Market implies ~78% for Marco; we estimate ~62%
• • Required fair odds for value on Marco are ≥ 1.613, current 1.278 offers negative EV

Pros

• + Marco has grass experience and a slightly better overall record in the provided data
• + Home listing and surface familiarity likely justify him being favorite

Cons

• - Market overstates the gap between the two players given modest career records and recent form
• - Small sample sizes on grass and limited recent distinguishing evidence increase uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (Marco at 1.278 => ~78.2%) to our assessment based on the provided player profiles and surface context. Marco Trungelliti has a slightly positive overall record (35-29) and has played on grass, while Bernabé Zapata Miralles has a weaker overall record (22-25) and no clear grass history in the provided data. That said, the magnitude of the market favoritism toward Marco is extreme for a Challenger opening round given the modest differences in recent form and career win rates. We estimate Marco's true win probability around 62% — reflecting a clear edge on grass but accounting for limited sample sizes and that both players have recent Challenger-level matches — which is well below the market-implied ~78.2%. At the quoted decimal 1.278 the EV = 0.62*1.278 - 1 = -0.208 (about -20.8% ROI), so there is no value at the current price. To obtain positive EV we would need at least decimal 1.613 or higher for Marco.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (78.2%) is much higher than our estimated true probability (62%)
• • Marco has grass experience; Zapata Miralles has no clear grass background in the provided data
• • Both players are Challenger-level with modest recent records—sample sizes and recent form limit certainty