Marco Trungelliti vs Filip Cristian Jianu

Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Jianu: ~29.9%
• • Our estimated probability: 32% → EV ≈ +7.2%

Pros

• + Price (3.35) exceeds our required odds (3.125) for a profitable edge
• + Both players' recent form is similar, which supports an underdog price correction

Cons

• - Limited matchup-specific data and no H2H information increases uncertainty
• - Trungelliti's stronger career win rate suggests downside if fatigue or conditions favor the favorite

Details

We believe Filip Cristian Jianu is slightly undervalued at decimal 3.35. The market implies ~29.9% chance for Jianu (1/3.35), while we estimate his true win probability at ~32% based on comparable Challenger form (both reached the semis), both having grass experience, and Trungelliti's heavy favoritism reflecting career win-rate strength rather than a clear surface or matchup dominance. At our estimate Jianu offers positive value versus the current price.

Key factors

• • Current market price implies ~29.9% for the away player; our model gives ~32%
• • Both players are in similar Challenger form and have grass experience, reducing a clear surface edge
• • Trungelliti's stronger overall record may be priced in heavily, leaving value on the underdog