Marco Trungelliti vs Franco Agamenone
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Agamenone at 4.31 — we estimate his upset chance at ~27%, producing ~16% ROI on a 1-unit stake versus the market-implied 23.2%.
Highlights
- • Agamenone priced at 4.31 implies only a 23.2% chance — we estimate ~27%
- • Trungelliti’s grass experience narrows risk, but favorite price (1.235) offers no value
Pros
- + Current odds (4.31) are above our min-required odds (3.704) for Agamenone
- + Agamenone’s superior overall record supports a non-negligible upset probability
Cons
- - Agamenone appears to be primarily a clay player with no grass experience listed
- - Limited recent-form edge — both players show mixed recent results, increasing outcome variance
Details
We believe Franco Agamenone represents value at the current away price because the market-implied probability (1/4.31 = 23.2%) underestimates his realistic chance given the available information. While Marco Trungelliti is favored and has recorded grass match experience, Agamenone's stronger overall career W-L record and comparable recent activity keep his upset ceiling meaningful despite being primarily a clay player. We estimate Agamenone's true chance at ~27%, which exceeds the market-implied 23.2%; that gap produces positive expected value at 4.31. The home price (1.235) is too short relative to our estimated probability for Trungelliti, so backing the favorite lacks value.
Key factors
- • Surface: grass — Trungelliti has grass experience; Agamenone listed as clay-only
- • Career records: Agamenone has a stronger overall W-L (41-25) vs Trungelliti (35-29)
- • Market-implied away probability (23.2%) is below our estimated true probability (27%)