Marco Trungelliti vs Mili Poljicak
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices the home favorite at ~71.8%, but given the limited edge from grass experience and recent form we estimate a 66% chance—insufficient to justify a bet at 1.395.
Highlights
- • Trungelliti has documented grass experience; Poljicak does not.
- • Current odds imply a higher win probability than our conservative estimate.
Pros
- + Home player has surface familiarity advantage
- + Stronger overall career record and recent tournament progression
Cons
- - Market already heavily favors the home player, leaving little value
- - Poljicak reached the final as well, so upset risk persists
Details
We compare the market price (home 1.395 -> implied 71.8%) to our assessment based only on the provided profiles and match context. Marco Trungelliti has documented grass experience and a stronger career win rate (41-29) than Mili Poljicak (31-29). Poljicak's recorded surfaces are clay and hard with no grass matches listed, which is a tangible surface disadvantage on grass. Trungelliti also shows positive recent results in the Targu Mures event. However, the current odds price of 1.395 already implies a ~71.8% chance for the home player; based on the limited data we assign a more conservative true win probability of 66% for Trungelliti. That probability yields a required fair price of ~1.515 decimal, meaning the market is overvaluing the favorite and offers negative expected value at the quoted 1.395. Because expected value at current prices is negative, we do not recommend backing either side.
Key factors
- • Surface experience: Trungelliti has grass matches recorded; Poljicak has no grass matches listed
- • Recent form: Trungelliti reached/advanced in the Targu Mures event while Poljicak's recent results shown include losses
- • Market-implied probability (71.8%) exceeds our conservative true probability estimate (66%)