Marco Cecchinato vs Jozef Kovalik
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find modest value backing Marco Cecchinato at 1.794: his superior season win-rate outweighs surface concern enough to generate ~4% ROI at current prices.
Highlights
- • Market implies 55.7% for Cecchinato; we estimate 58%
- • Positive EV at current decimal price 1.794 (EV ≈ 0.041)
Pros
- + Clear season-long performance advantage
- + Available odds exceed our min required price (1.724), producing value
Cons
- - Cecchinato’s recent matches are predominantly on clay — grass suitability is uncertain
- - Both players show uneven recent form, increasing variance
Details
The market prices Marco Cecchinato at 1.794 (implied 55.7%). We estimate Cecchinato's true win probability at 58% based on a substantially better season win rate (30-26 vs Kovalik's 13-26) and overall greater match volume and experience. The main downgrade to his raw edge is the grass surface: Cecchinato's recent activity is concentrated on clay, while Kovalik has mixed-surface experience including grass, which narrows the margin. After accounting for surface uncertainty but weighting season-long performance and win-rate disparity, we find the market underestimates Cecchinato by ~2.3 percentage points. At the available decimal price (1.794) this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.58 * 1.794 - 1 ≈ 0.041).
Key factors
- • Season win-rate advantage for Cecchinato (30-26 vs 13-26)
- • Surface conflict: Cecchinato primarily on clay, Kovalik has grass experience
- • Market implied prob (55.7%) vs our estimate (58%) leaves small positive edge