Highlights

• • Market implies ~70.1% for Trungelliti; we estimate ~75%
• • Available price (1.427) is above our fair threshold (1.333), yielding positive EV

Pros

• + Experienced on grass vs opponent with limited/no grass history
• + Larger career sample reduces projection noise vs Paulson's limited matches

Cons

• - Recent-match data are noisy and limited; possible unshown form/injuries could flip edge
• - Challenger finals can be swingy; pressure and match-up specifics (serve/return) unknown

Details

We view Marco Trungelliti as the clear favorite based on surface experience and overall career volume compared with Andrew Paulson's limited match history and apparent lack of grass experience. The market decimal price of 1.427 implies a win probability of ~70.1% (1/1.427). After adjusting for surface differential (Trungelliti has played grass; Paulson's profile shows primarily clay), match experience in Challenger level finals, and the larger sample of matches for Trungelliti (35-29 career vs. Paulson's 5-9), we estimate a true win probability of ~75% for Trungelliti. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price is 1.333, so the available price of 1.427 offers value. EV per 1 unit = 0.75 * 1.427 - 1 = +0.070 (≈7.0% ROI). We acknowledge uncertainty from limited and noisy recent-match data and no head-to-head info, so we treat this as a medium-risk value bet.

Key factors

• • Trungelliti has prior grass experience while Paulson's record shows mostly clay
• • Trungelliti has a much larger match sample (35-29) vs Paulson (5-9), reducing variance in projection
• • Market-implied probability (~70.1%) is below our estimated true probability (75%)
• • Both players reached the final at this event, but experience at Challenger level favors Trungelliti
• • Small-sample and noisy recent results increase uncertainty — our edge is moderate not huge