Highlights

• • Market-implied chance for Brunold (2.35) is ~42.6%; we estimate ~48%
• • Positive EV of ~0.128 per unit at current away odds

Pros

• + Brunold's season win rate is visibly higher than Marco's in the research data
• + Price (2.35) provides a comfortable margin above our breakeven odds (2.083)

Cons

• - No H2H or clear fitness/injury data in the research — uncertainty remains
• - Home advantage and market information not fully explained could reduce true edge

Details

We find value on Mika Brunold at the away price. The market heavily favours Marco Trungelliti at 1.57 (implied ~63.7%), but the underlying data in the research shows Brunold with a slightly better season win rate (39-28 ~58.2% vs Marco 35-29 ~54.7%) and comparable clay experience. Recent form for both is mixed with neither showing a clear sustained advantage; given Brunold's marginally stronger overall record and similar surface profile, we estimate Brunold's true chance materially above the market-implied 42.6% for 2.35. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 48%, the away price of 2.35 yields positive expected value. Key risks are small-sample noise in profiles, unclear fitness/H2H, and potential home/venue factors that could justify some market lean toward Marco, so we price conservatively.

Key factors

• • Brunold has a marginally better season win-loss record (39-28 vs 35-29)
• • Both players have clay experience; surface does not clearly penalize Brunold
• • Market overweights home/favourite Marco (1.57) relative to form and season numbers