Margarita Ignatjeva vs Ella Haavisto
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value play on Margarita Ignatjeva at 3.36—our conservative true-win estimate (48%) implies ~0.61 units EV per 1-unit stake versus the current price.
Highlights
- • Market implies home win ~29.8% while our estimate is 48%
- • EV at current odds is strongly positive (~0.61)
Pros
- + Clear discrepancy between market-implied probability and research-based estimate
- + Neutral surface history and identical recent form argue against the strong market favorite
Cons
- - Limited and similar data for both players increases uncertainty in the estimate
- - No head-to-head, ranking, or additional contextual info in the provided research to refine probability
Details
We find value backing Margarita Ignatjeva at 3.36. The available player profiles show near-identical records and recent form for both players (10-21 overall, similar recent results and surfaces played), which argues for a far closer matchup than market odds imply. The market prices Ella Haavisto at 1.27 (implied win probability ~78.7%) and Margarita at 3.36 (implied ~29.8%). Given the parity in recorded performance, neutral surface history, and lack of differentiating injury or surface factors in the research, we estimate a substantially higher true win probability for Ignatjeva (0.48). That gives positive expected value: EV = 0.48 * 3.36 - 1 = 0.613 per unit staked. We remain conservative with our probability due to limited sample sizes and no H2H info, but even a modest uplift vs. market implies clear value on the home price.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided research (10-21), suggesting parity
- • No clear surface advantage or injury information in the research to favor the market favorite
- • Market heavily favors the away player (implied ~78.7%) despite research parity, creating value