Margaux Rouvroy vs Petra Marcinko
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Margaux Rouvroy at 4.05 because the market-implied probability (~24.7%) understates her realistic win chance (~30%), yielding ~21.5% expected ROI.
Highlights
- • Market favorite is heavily priced despite near-identical career records
- • Required fair odds for value are 3.333; current 4.05 exceeds that threshold
Pros
- + Clear value gap between implied and our estimated probability
- + Both players' recent form is similar, limiting the justification for a steep market favourite
Cons
- - Both players show weak recent form; outcomes are volatile
- - Research is limited and identical for both players, increasing uncertainty in the true probability
Details
We see a large market gap: Petra Marcinko is heavily favored at 1.20 (implied ~83.3%) while Margaux Rouvroy is priced at 4.05 (implied ~24.7%). The provided player profiles show near-identical career spans, surface experience and overall win-loss records (both 10-21 across clay/hard), suggesting the market favorite may be overvalued relative to the available performance data. Using a conservative true-win estimate for Rouvroy of 30% (below her career raw win rate but accounting for recent poor form for both players), the current decimal price of 4.05 offers positive expected value. EV calculation: 0.30 * 4.05 - 1 = +0.215 (21.5% ROI). We therefore recommend the home side only because the current market price exceeds our minimum fair odds (3.333) required for a positive expectation.
Key factors
- • Market implies only ~24.7% for Rouvroy (4.05) while player profiles show similar career records
- • Both players show poor recent form in the research, reducing the edge for a heavy favorite
- • No injuries or surface disadvantages reported; neutral conditions support market overreaction thesis