Margaux Rouvroy vs Seda Baslilar
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market overprices Rouvroy at 1.141 given her mixed record and recent losses; we estimate her true win probability ~80%, producing negative EV at current odds, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market implied probability 87.6% vs our estimate 80% — no value.
- • Insufficient evidence on the opponent to justify the heavy favorite price.
Pros
- + Rouvroy is the clear market favorite and likely the stronger name on paper.
- + Surface exposure (clay/hard) is listed for Rouvroy, so no obvious surface mismatch.
Cons
- - Rouvroy's 10-21 career record and recent losses reduce confidence in an 87.6% market probability.
- - No information provided on Baslilar means hidden upside for the underdog and increased model uncertainty.
Details
The market prices Margaux Rouvroy at 1.141 (implied win probability ≈ 87.6%). Our assessment, given the available data, places Rouvroy's true win probability substantially lower — around 80% — because her career record is 10-21 (31 matches), recent form shows multiple recent losses on hard and clay, and we have no performance or ranking information for Seda Baslilar to justify such a heavy market skew. Using our probability (0.80) the fair decimal price is 1.25 (1 / 0.80). At the current price of 1.141 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.80 * 1.141 - 1 = -0.087), so there is no value in backing the heavy favorite. Without evidence that Baslilar is significantly inferior (injury, ranking gap, or very poor form), we cannot justify taking the shortprice favorite; therefore we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Rouvroy career record 10-21 over 31 matches indicates modest performance at ITF/Challenger levels
- • Recent results show multiple losses on hard and clay, suggesting current form is not dominant
- • No available data on Seda Baslilar in the provided research — unknown opponent risk makes the short price unattractive