Highlights

• • Home underdog (2.49) requires only ~40.2% true probability to be +EV; we estimate ~48%
• • Favorite at 1.493 looks overvalued given the supplied, near-identical player profiles

Pros

• + Price provides clear mathematical value vs our estimated win probability
• + No evidence in research to justify heavy favoritism for the away player

Cons

• - Research is limited and messy—uncertainty around recent form and match conditions increases risk
• - No H2H or injury data provided to further validate the estimate

Details

The market prices Alice Tubello as a clear favorite at 1.493 (implying ~67% win probability), but the available profiles show near-identical career records, surfaces played and unclear recent form for both players. There is no H2H or injury information to justify such a large margin. Given the parity in background and lack of a clear edge for Tubello, we assess the true win probability for Margaux Rouvroy to be substantially higher than the implied 40.16% from the 2.49 price. At an estimated true probability of 48%, the 2.49 quote offers positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 2.49 - 1 = 0.1952). We therefore recommend backing the home underdog because the market appears to overvalue the favorite without supporting evidence in the provided research.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical career records and surface experience in the provided profiles
• • Market favorite price (1.493) implies ~67% win chance that is not supported by the supplied form data
• • No injury, H2H, or clear form advantage present in research — suggests a more even matchup